Blockbuster events everywhere

An extraordinary year is shuffling into its final stretch and it’s packed with blockbuster events. Here are some examples:

(1) The global number of coronavirus cases worldwide has surpassed 30 million. Over the last nine months almost a million people have died around the world while scientists try to develop a coronvirus cure or vaccine. More than half of European countries have reported a greater than 10 per cent increase in cases in the past two weeks. India, despite a four-month lockdown, has the world’s second-highest number of coronavirus cases. The fastest growing major economy is expected to contract 14.8% this year.

(2) A seismic US presidential election, that could cause a constitutional crisis. If the vote is close, Donald Trump could easily throw the election into chaos and subvert the result. Only once, in 1877, has the Interregnum brought the country to the brink of true collapse. Four states sent rival slates of electors to Congress in the 1876 presidential race between Democrat Samuel Tilden and Republican Rutherford B. Hayes.

(3) A possible no-deal Brexit that would end a 3-1/2 year long UK-Brussels standoff with a bang. The fallout of a no-deal outcome was likely to be two to three times larger for the UK than that of the worst pandemic witnessed in post-war history, Goldman Sachs economists have warned.

(4) The near-term outlook for inflation remains uncertain. The Fed move towards greater inflation tolerance, essentially a pledge to keep policy loose, puts other central banks in a bind. Unless they follow, the dollar’s weakening against their currencies could threaten economic recovery and their inflation targets.

Toy Story 2 by John Lasseter, Ash Brannon, 1999, Barton Gellman, 27.09.2020, Miriam Berger, 26.09.2020, 25.09.2020, 18.09.2020, Silvia Amaro, 15.09.2020, 11.09.2020