The black swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

(EU chuckles) I’m in danger!
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, marking a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. Russian military vehicles had crossed the […]